Betting on the Underdog in Baseball
Betting on the Underdog in Baseball
A seven year study has revealed the following results
A player who bet on every underdog would have gone 6917 - 9644 and lost 153 Units.
A gambler who bet on every favorite would have gone 9619 - 6891 and lost 641 Units.
The study also revealed that a bettor who bet only on the underdog in divisional games would have gone 3414 - 4513 and showed a profit of 191 units.
On the flip side, non divisional and interleague games bet on every underdog would have gone 4401 - 6434 and lost 341 units.
While the study provides some useful and astounding information, it did not go into the home team versus visiting teams leaving it incomplete and not as useful as it would otherwise have been.
There are two great things about betting on baseball. First, you don't need to win over half of your bets to make a profit. Secondly, the teams almost always play a three game series with each other before moving on to the next situation.
While many bettors will take this information and conclude it is always profitable to bet the underdog in divisional games, that is shooting at the wrong target.
A better strategy would be to bet only on the home underdog to win one out the three game series. With +150 or better odds, you can profit winning just one out of the three. No matter which game wins, you profit something.
Because of the parity in the league, even the worst teams will avoid a sweep at home 85% of the time. There is the occasional dog at the very bottom, like Seattle last year (2010). They were swept 6 times at home, or 25% of their series. You can avoid such losers by betting teams that have won 40 to 50 percent of their games over all.
Without doubt, the money in baseball is in the underdog. And you don't tap into that money by betting on individual games. You take an underdog team for the series and bet it smartly so you can profit.
A seven year study has revealed the following results
A player who bet on every underdog would have gone 6917 - 9644 and lost 153 Units.
A gambler who bet on every favorite would have gone 9619 - 6891 and lost 641 Units.
The study also revealed that a bettor who bet only on the underdog in divisional games would have gone 3414 - 4513 and showed a profit of 191 units.
On the flip side, non divisional and interleague games bet on every underdog would have gone 4401 - 6434 and lost 341 units.
While the study provides some useful and astounding information, it did not go into the home team versus visiting teams leaving it incomplete and not as useful as it would otherwise have been.
There are two great things about betting on baseball. First, you don't need to win over half of your bets to make a profit. Secondly, the teams almost always play a three game series with each other before moving on to the next situation.
While many bettors will take this information and conclude it is always profitable to bet the underdog in divisional games, that is shooting at the wrong target.
A better strategy would be to bet only on the home underdog to win one out the three game series. With +150 or better odds, you can profit winning just one out of the three. No matter which game wins, you profit something.
Because of the parity in the league, even the worst teams will avoid a sweep at home 85% of the time. There is the occasional dog at the very bottom, like Seattle last year (2010). They were swept 6 times at home, or 25% of their series. You can avoid such losers by betting teams that have won 40 to 50 percent of their games over all.
Without doubt, the money in baseball is in the underdog. And you don't tap into that money by betting on individual games. You take an underdog team for the series and bet it smartly so you can profit.
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